Seismic Shift

Today a fulcrum has tilted. A fulcrum which has been frozen in place for so long that it seemed it would never shift.

Since George Washington took office in April of 1789 until today, the forty-three men who have sat behind the desk of the President of the United States have been a variation on one theme - "old white guy." To be sure, a few have not been quite so old. Their politics and policies have been different, but the faces have all been of a kind.

Just after noon today, 20 January 2009, a new face joined the group. A face many thought would never find a spot in the mighty assemblage of Chief Executives. With a grinding of long-unused gears, the fulcrum of the American political landscape finally tilted away from the point where it had rested for centuries and found a new balance. Barack Hussein Obama II took the oath of office to become the forty-fourth President and the first black man to hold the post. Regardless of his political leanings, or what the future may hold for his administration, Obama's election to and assumption of the Presidency is one of those inflection points in history when everything changes. A long and unpleasant chapter of American history is now closed as a representative of a once-oppressed minority rises to the highest position an American can attain.

Well done, sir. Tho I disagree with some of your politics, I hope with all my being that you will prove my apprehensions wrong. The country needs a giant at her helm right now. You, sir, must grow beyond the limitations of party, of race, of politics and of expectations. You must guide our nation away from the decline and irrelevancy towards which the last several small men to hold your new office have turned her. You must be more than a steward. More than an executive. More than a Commander-in-Chief. More than a President.

You must be a leader.

Obama Wins the Presidency

As I had expected, Barack Obama has won the 2008 Presidential contest. In electoral terms, it was a gigantic victory. By the popular vote, he took 51% of voters to McCain's 46%, so it seems he reached only a bit beyond the Democratic base. At any rate, congratulations to Mr Obama on his victory. He's about to enter a job that beats men into the ground while simultaneously elevating them to the ultimate reaches of power. The challenges facing him are tremendous. I wish him all success.

Racist? Really?

This is the absurb depth to which we've sunk during this campaign. A little girl wears a Sarah Palin t-shirt to school and is branded a "racist" by some of her classmates.

I could launch into a polemic about how this came to be, what it says about the current state of American politics, and bemoan the implications for the future of our country. Instead of all that, tho, I'll just say . . . sad. Very, very sad. And utterly ridiculous.

Unexpurgated

Hmmm. That interview Sarah Palin did with Charlie Gibson a few days ago, the one that the Obama supporters keep trumpeting as demonstrating how unready to be President the Governor is, how ill-informed and out-of-touch . . . remember that? Turns out it goes a bit differently if you read the unedited transcript.

Gotta love our "unbiased" press.

Hat tip - Teflon at MoltenThought.

Conventional Wisdom

The major political conventions have been and gone. Time to reflect on what we've learned.

Conventions, as the soundbite has it, are these days highly scripted events. There were no real surprises at either one. But they're still instructive, as they give us a chance to see the candidates make major speeches in front of huge audiences. You can get a glimpse of the real personalities in those moments.

Michelle Obama was very impressive. Many politicos are very obviously reading when they give speeches. Not Ms Obama. She sounded like she was talking, not speechifyin'. Her voice fairly trembled with passion in spots and she came across as very earnest. Too bad she's not actually running for anything . . .

Barack Obama demonstrated again that he gives good speech. Not quite at the Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan level, but very natural and warm. Alas, watching him in other venues suggests that he can do this only when working from prepared material. Speaking off the cuff, he tends to "umm" and "aahh" a lot and hesitate a whole lot more. He's stiff, in other words. Nevertheless, he remains well able to stir a crowd and it's not hard to see how he inspires people. Content-wise, well, it was a convention speech and as such full of boilerplate. Nothing particularly memorable, but solid and touching on just about all of the points that needed touching upon. And, as is usual these days, short on actual substance. He's going to do thus-and-such when elected, but we're not told how he'll do it, or what magic he will use to bring opposing (partisan) interests together, or where the money to fund his programs will come from.

Obama's running mate, Senator Joe Biden, brings badly needed experience to the ticket but somewhat undercuts the "hope and change" mantra due to being such a classic Washington insider. Biden's speech was the speech of a party hack, to be blunt. Gives the impression that he'll be used as the attack dog for the balance of the campaign, allowing Obama to stay at least partially above the fray. But Biden is also a known quantity in Washington, and the choice of him as running mate brings a degree of balance to the ticket . . . neophyte change agent Obama teamed with experienced knows-where-all-the-bits-go Biden makes an attractive package to many potential voters. It's something old and something new, the promise of shaking things up leavened with the reassurance of not shaking things up so much that they fall apart.

On the Republican side, the major story is of course McCain's out-of-left-field selection of Governor Sarah Palin as VP. Timed perfectly to steal Obama's momentum coming out of the Democratic convention, the Palin announcement has reportedly electrified the conservative base, something McCain on his own had almost completely failed to do.

As an aside, the impact of the announcement and the start of the Republican convention was nearly torpedoed by Hurricane Gustav in a "you can't make this stuff up" bit of nearly flawless timing. Amusing that what the McCain team did to Obama by design was almost done to them in turn by act of God.

Anyway, Palin would seem a very odd choice for VP. She takes away McCain's best weapon against Obama, which is the younger man's lack of experience. Any such charge now levelled against Obama immediately boomerangs back on Team McCain thru the obvious lack of experience of a less-than-one-term governor of a relatively small (population-wise, at least) state. The counterpoint to that, tho, is that every time Obama says "I have all the tools I need to be President", Palin can say the same thing, since she's got a good deal more executive experience than has Obama.

The McCain-Palin team is almost a mirror image of the Obama-Biden team. McCain is the Washington insider, despite his oft-repeated claim to being a maverick. Governor Palin is the brash young reformer from Outside, balancing McCain's age and political hack-ness with her youth and uncorrupted outside-the-beltway credentials. Palin is also, very likely, the future of the Republican party. She and a few other up-and-coming new faces (like Governor Bobby Jindal from Louisiana) are the emerging leaders of the next generation.

The two teams mirror in another way as well. Palin gave an outstanding speech when she accepted the Republican nomination, showing poise and sincerity. McCain gave a McCain speech, which is to say, nothing special. Except at the very end when he seemed to really reach inside for some passion. And pardon me for saying, but can the man give one speech without reminding us that he was a POW in VietNam? He mentions it every time he's in front of the cameras, it seems like. While his experiences in VietNam are undoubtedly an important part of his background, and in fact a much more telling glimpse of his character than anything any of the other major players has shown us, he's sort of beating it into the ground and robbing the story of its impact.

The selection of Palin makes the overall Presidential race much more interesting, which may be the governor's major contribution to the whole deal. Well, that and making the Vice-Presidential debate pretty much a no-win situation for Joe Biden . . . he can't attack her too harshly without seeming like he's "beating up a woman" and if he shows the least bit of defensiveness he risks looking like he's being beaten up by a woman. And so far, Palin gives an impression of confidence which suggests that Biden is going to be in for a tough time at the debate.

The real story, obviously, is still the contest between McCain and Obama, as interesting as the VP face-off might be. I personally don't think McCain has enough of a base to win, even with Palin. I think the Obama juggernaut is going to steamroller right in to the White House come November. There are just too many people out there who are sick to death of business-as-usual in Washington and hold the opinon that Obama is the guy to shake things up. So I still project Obama to be our next President.

Smokescreen

The Sunday talk shows today were all abuzz with the apparent dead heat between the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. At the moment, I'm still thinking Obama is going to take the nomination and the general election in November, but let's put that aside for now.

Interspersed throughout the commentary from various analysts and talking heads regarding what the Democrats are going to do to sort out their primary season before the convention, or indeed if they even can sort it out and avoid a convention battle, the name of John McCain was mentioned once or twice. The Republicans have of course already settled pretty conclusively on their nominee, and so the close match on the Democrat side is drawing all the press, since that's where the story is. One commentator even mentioned as a passing joke something along the lines of "Remember McCain? You know, the Republican candidate?"

And that's the point. Since there is such a close race between Clinton and Obama, and since there is so much fascinating stuff happening in that contest with the outcome not decided (and looking like it won't be decided until the convention), the Democrats are by default getting a huge share of media attention this year. Now, this could be a problem, but to be fair the story on the Democrat side is much more intriguing than on the Republican side. We've got the first serious woman candidate for President, and the first serious black candidate for the same office. Turnout in the primaries and caucuses so far has reportedly been extremely heavy. The Republicans are running their ten trillionth variant of "old white guy" for office, so even if McCain is a solid choice, he's - let's face it - boring. He's not really news, at least not at this point.

The question in my mind is whether this situation is serving the greater public interest. Is the intense interest in the contest on the Democratic side generating extra "push" among voters to go that direction come November? In other words, is the simple fact that the battle between Clinton and Obama is both amazingly historical and intensely interesting tilting the national playing field towards the Democrats in general?

Or is this simply an artifact of the mainstream press and its well-known bias towards the Left? The chattering class and its various offshoots are, in general, much more likely to vote Democratic than Republican, and so naturally lean towards talking about the Democratic race more than the Republican one. Eight years of George Bush following eight years of Bill Clinton seems to have drastically polarized the country, due not in small measure to the emergence of twenty-four-hour cable news, talk radio, and the blogosphere during that same sixteen-year period. True? The possibility that this is not actually the case, and is a smokescreen unconsciously thrown up by the patterns of the media elites, seems real to me. The media no longer just report the news, in many cases they make the news, and if they bend to the left, the reporting will follow. Things that are barely visible in "flyover country" assume an aspect of huge importance in the media because the media is driven by a small group of interrelated interests who mostly share some common political biases.

American news coverage seems to have fallen into a subtle trap. The elites are concentrated on the coasts and in a couple of other (mostly urban) areas. In this self-created echo chamber, they constantly hear their own beliefs and opinions reinforced by those around them, leading to the conclusion that that's how everyone must feel. The "silent majority" in that dismissed-with-a-wave "flyover country" are viewed as misinformed at best and dangerously naive at worst, and also thought to be a much smaller percentage of the population than they actually are.

I don't know where the truth falls in all this. Media coverage of the Democratic race is heavy because the Democratic race is heavily interesting this time. But the biases of the press are known, documented, and actually rather obvious. Will this impact the general election in the fall? Is "media momentum" going to translate into votes? I don't even know if this can be teased out of the tremendous mass of statistical data generated by all the polling associated with an election. Especially if no-one is looking for it.

I do know that voting is still the single most important responsibility we bear as citizens. So whatever your beliefs, whoever your candidate, make sure to exercise that responsibility, gentle reader. Find the fulcrum on which your personal choice tilts and make your decision.

End of an Interval

Yep, another long interval between posts. Y'know, I really intended to do more writing on this blog when I started it. That doggone "real life" stuff always gets in the way.


Item: William F. Buckley Jr. has died. Buckley was a towering presence on the Conservative side of American politics. Altho I did not always agree with his positions, I found his writing to be of a superb calibre and he was often very amusing. His passing leaves a huge void among the voices of the Right.


Item: in keeping with my previously announced new feature, I'm now predicting that Barak Obama will be the next President. I think the Democratic convention is going to be an ugly battle between the Clinton and Obama camps, but in the end Obama's momentum from the primaries will carry him. Since John McCain seems to be a dead lock for the Republicans now (barring some revelation with more substance than the muckraking New York TImes was able to muster), I think Obama's youth, ability to inspire, promises of "change" (best not analyzed too closely, since he's really just a run-of-the-mill Democrat) and the historical weight of being the first serious black candidate for President will give him the edge come November.


Item: My online buddy Generik has somehow injured himself. Best wishes and hopes for a speedy recovery.


Item: Ralph Nader is jumping in again. There is much pulling of hair and gnashing of teeth going on over Nader's announcement, altho I personally find it hard to believe that anyone but the most hard core of the reality-impaired will throw any votes his way this time. Memories of the 2000 campaign and Nader's spoiler role are too fresh. I doubt that those on the Left want to take the chance of throwing the election to the Republicans just to make a point this time.


As always, I've been wanting to comment on a lot of the stuff going on in the world, and as always, finding the time to do it is difficult. Ah well.

Iowa Caucus Results

According to the numbers CNN is reporting it looks like Obama takes the primary for the Democrats and Huckabee for the Republicans. Edwards is in second and Clinton in third on the D side, with Romney and McCain taking those slots in the R column. And the 2008 campaign is off to a roaring start.

I find it heartening that Obama is doing so well. Think of the history being made here: a black man is a serious contender for President. If that doesn't tell you we've come a long way, baby then you're just not paying attention.

Huckabee, on the other hand, I expect to fizzle as the primaries go forward. Altho none of the Republicans are especially impressive this time around, I expect either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani to eventually break out of the pack. We'll see.

New Feature

Happy New Year!

Inaugurating a new feature here at Fulcrum Ruminations just in time for the 2008 elections, I'm going to toss out my prediction for President. I'll update this as events warrant. Bear in mind that this is very much a "gut feeling" and I'm not going to enumerate a long list of reasons for my pick. It's simply my take on the likely outcome based on a general reading of current media reporting.

Realizing that voting day is still 11 months away and many things can still change, right now I project that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States.

Fire in the Hole!

Well now. It seems that Presidential candidate John Edwards (D/North Carolina) decided to hire some campaign help from the blogging community. Edwards is a savvy guy and is aware of the burgeoning blogosphere and its relationship to politics at all levels. As a Democrat with a somewhat liberal outlook, he naturally went to the left side of the blogosphere in search of some professional blogging help.

Unfortunately, he found Amanda Marcotte and Melissa McEwan. Marcotte is known from the blog Pandagon. McEwan is from the blog Shakespeare's Sister. Marcotte is a good illustration of one of the main reasons I started Fulcrum Ruminations . . . in addition to being a left-fringe blogger, she's got an unrelentingly foul "mouth". Lots of F-words and venomous slurs populate her postings. Very uncivil and ill-mannered. McEwan at least seems to be a bit more reserved and readable.

Now apparently Edwards doesn't yet take the blogosphere as seriously as he should, or he would have devoted a little more effort to checking out the people his campaign was hiring. A few moments on the internet would have revealed how offensive Marcotte's work is. It may play well in the left fringe of the blogosphere, but for someone running a national-level political campaign and therefore needing to appeal to as wide a base as possible, it's poison. Despite what's being posted in the blogs on the left side of the fence, most of Middle America really doesn't like to hear that kind of language associated with someone aspiring to that level of office. Remember the cries of outrage directed at Dick Cheney when he uttered a profanity on Capitol Hill? Same principal. You get to a certain level of achievement, you shouldn't be talking (or blogging) like a boatload of drunken sailors.

Someone named "Bryan" has a good take on this up at Hotair:

Writing is a revelatory thing. Use of ALL CAPS is a shout; use of profanity to me reflects unseriousness and lack of a vocabulary (or at least a thesaurus) and a lack of manners. Using every single issue to smear and denigrate rather than persuade, enlighten, or heck, just entertain for a second, makes the writer look like a loon. Making every post somehow All About Me and My Proclivities That You Can’t Stop exhibits paranoia. It just does. And that’s why the two bloggers have become a liability.
On this side of the aisle, it’s just a hilarious situation to watch unfold. Everyone over there, threatening Edwards and threatening bloggers on the right and styling themselves as a bunch of internet Napoleons, just look like a collection of clowns falling all over themselves to be the next one to one-up the incandescent rage of the last one. Who can take themselves so seriously? Who can take them seriously anymore?

This is very much like what I was thinking when I started this blog. The fringes of the blogosphere are overrun with this sort of thing - whiney, self-indulgent little malcontents spewing vitriol as fast as they can pound their keyboards. The right fringe is every bit as guilty of it as the left fringe. Where, gentle reader, has civil discourse gone? Some of these people are obviously very intelligent and well-informed, if somewhat reality-impaired. Why then are they unable (or unwilling) to express themselves without throwing every curse-word they can think of into the mix? Why can't they make their points without childish insults or sulking invective? Is it that hard to be creative without being obscene?

Judging by the above examples, it certainly seems so.

Can It Be True?

According to Fox News, Rudy Giuliani has announced he's running for President.

Dare we think it?

Someone to vote for, instead of just voting against the bigger of two idiots? I think 2008 just got a whole lot more interesting.

And the Results

Hmmm. My predictions seem to have been of the "close but no cigar" variety.

Voter turnout seems to have been very heavy, for one thing. Many of the tight races remained tight right up until the last votes were counted. The Democrats did indeed take the House, but by a somewhat wider margin than I thought. The Senate is still in contention as I write this, with only the Virginia race still undecided, but it looks from here as tho the Dems will take a two-seat majority in the Senate.

This of course means disaster for the Bush administration, as the subpoenas will no doubt begin flowing shortly after the reins are handed over in January. Don Rumsfeld has already resigned/been fired, probably in an attempt to head off some of the venom.

Meanwhile, Joe Leiberman handily won reelection as an independent, nicely embarassing the reality-impaired lefties who forced him out of the Democratic party. The lesson there is, once again, that the mainstream of the country is nowhere near as liberal as some like to believe.

What lies ahead? Well, if I were the boss of the Republicans, I'd say that for the next two years they should let the Dems do whatever they want. Let them raise taxes, pile on the spending, pull us out of Iraq, enact whatever goofy legislation they want. Just smile and say "You got it!" Then, in 2008, the choice between the two parties should be nice and clear. Plus, there would be no charges of obstructionism or gridlock to be leveled. The Repubs could just say "Okay America, you've had two years of unrepressed Democratic leadership. How's that workin' out for ya?"

I have every confidence that the rush back to conservative principles would be seismic in its proportions. But meanwhile, I'm just going to say congratulations to the Dems. They somewhat clumsily seized the moment and are ascendent once again. Probably just the shock the Republicans needed at this point, since some twelve years after the "Republican Revolution" they have quite clearly lost their way. Time to refocus, reexamine, do some belly-button contemplation, all that good stuff.

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In other news, Bill Whittle has a nice piece up on his blog that everyone should take a look at. Some good analysis there.

Day of Decision

Very quickly, as we all know, tomorrow is Election Day. Many heated races, much sturm und drang, talking heads on television about to melt down from the sheer excitement. So I want to go on record with my official predictions.

The Democrats will take a slim majority in the House - maybe ten seats, maybe fifteen, but probably not more than that. They will also take a razor-thin majority in the Senate - one or two seats.

Many races will end very closely, and the lawyers will be working overtime to sue their favorite candidate into office.

Allegations of voter fraud will be rampant. No matter who wins, the other side will scream about cheating.

Dems win, taxes go up, economy slows down, investigations into/possible impeachment of the President.

Now along about Wednesday or so, we'll see how I did.

I'm also interested in seeing if any of the super-tight races (according to current polling) wind up being blow-outs for one side or the other. See, as much as we talk about the big national issues and party implications, Congressional elections tend to be very local affairs. Everyone agrees that Congress is doing a bad job . . . except for my guy, of course. So we'll see if the power of incumbency makes any sort of difference this time around.

Still, I sense a mood of profound disgust out there among the public. They don't like what's been going on, they're tired of the partisan nonsense, they want things to change. Which leads me to my final prediction: fairly low voter turn-out, even by mid-term election standards.

We'll see.